A large asteroid that will almost certainly not hit Earth now has a slightly higher chance of hitting the Moon than previously thought, according to NASA.
When the asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, there was a very small chance that it could hit Earth in 2032, but the US space agency has now reduced that chance to 0.004%.
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However, NASA has now reported that the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, has more than doubled – from 1.7% to 3.8%. The new calculation is based on data from telescopes, including the James Webb telescope.
“There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon,” NASA said in a statement, adding that even if it were to hit, it would not change the Moon’s orbit.
Webb’s infrared observations have also helped narrow down the size of the asteroid to between 53 and 67 metres — about the size of a 10-story building.
Since 2024 YR4 was first discovered through a telescope in Chile in December, dozens of other objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon.
It is likely that others, albeit much smaller, have hit us or burned up in the atmosphere without being noticed.
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Moon hit could have provided rare study opportunities
Although a lunar impact is highly unlikely, it could provide a rare opportunity to observe a real collision and study how the Moon reacts.
Professor Mark Burchell, a space scientist at the University of Kent, told New Scientist that such a meeting would be “a great experiment and a perfect opportunity”.
“Telescopes would certainly see it, and maybe binoculars too,” he added.
The James Webb telescope will observe the asteroid again next month for further analysis.
