The world’s oil flows are changing
Shipping is being rerouted at record speed, while the conflict in the Middle East continues to threaten the world’s most important oil route.
Data from Lloyd’s List shows that over 1260 ships passed through Bab-el-Mandeb in March – the highest number since January 2024. This is happening despite ongoing risks from the Houthis’ activities in the region, which increased sharply after the Gaza war broke out.
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For many operators, the math has changed. Hormuz is no longer just risky – it’s also increasingly unpredictable.
Saudi Arabia redirects oil
An important reason for this development appears to be Saudi Arabia’s decision to send more crude oil through its Red Sea infrastructure. Shipments from the port of Yanbu have averaged around 3.6 million barrels per day over the past few weeks. This corresponds to about 20 percent of what would normally have passed through Hormuz before the current tensions escalated.
The diversion takes place via a 120-mile pipeline that was originally built to circumvent the Gulf risks during the Iran-Iraq war. Again, it seems to serve the same purpose.
Container giants bypass Africa
Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List points out that this trend is due to a broader restructuring, not just a short-term reaction. Large container companies such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have once again started sending their ships around Africa. That adds up to two weeks to the journey between Asia and Europe.
The market in the backwater
Traffic through Hormuz has fallen sharply. Only 35 ships were registered in the week ending Tuesday – less than half of the week before. Around 70 percent of these are said to have been affiliated with Iran, reflecting tighter controls and ongoing blockades between Tehran and Washington.
Even with increased shipments via the Red Sea and additional exports from the US, global crude oil supplies are down by about nine million barrels per day. That gap weighs on the market, which is already struggling with great uncertainty.
Paralyzed by uncertainty
The shipowners who have ships inside the Gulf do not seem to be in a hurry to move them out. Meade is said to have stated that there is a growing “paralysis” about the situation. Lloyd’s List estimates that even if Hormuz were to open immediately, it could take until September for tanker traffic to return to normal.
If the strait has been mined, the disturbances could extend all the way into 2027.
Ships from the “dark fleet” are used for legal shipping
Meanwhile, some operators are resorting to unconventional solutions. Ships that have previously been linked to so-called “dark fleet” activities – often associated with trade in sanctioned oil – are now used for legal shipping. One example is the Comoros-flagged “Helga”, which recently reportedly left Basra with 1.7 million barrels of crude oil after several years of sanctions-related routes.
In summary, the situation paints a picture of a shipping industry that adapts in real time – not necessarily by waiting for stability, but by working around its absence.
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